Track Record Methodology

How the simulated track record on /performance is produced: the launch rule, the simulation environment, what is included, and what the numbers cannot tell you.

The protocol

The track record is generated by a fixed, documented rule applied mechanically by an internal validation engine. No human selects instruments or moments, and no result is added by hand.

  • Trigger. Whenever an instrument in the catalogue shows a Martingale Score of 4 or higher and a Startingale reading of 4 or higher, the engine replicates that instrument's predefined configuration in simulation, with a fictitious budget of $1,000 per sequence, on an Alpaca paper trading account owned by Tradingale's operator.
  • Cadence. The rule is evaluated every 10 minutes. Each run launches at most 3 new sequences; any remaining eligible instruments are picked up by subsequent runs.
  • Score freshness. A grade can only trigger while it is recent. Crypto grades are recomputed roughly every 40 minutes and cannot trigger once older than 2 hours; US stock grades are recomputed 3 times per trading day and cannot trigger once older than 24 hours. This prevents launches on stale data after an outage.
  • One sequence per instrument. A ticker that already has a sequence running is skipped until that sequence closes. The same instrument can appear several times in the record, but only sequentially, never in parallel. Every sequence follows the instrument's predefined structure, with a hard cap of 5 rounds.

The threshold is a measurement device, nothing more: it defines the conditions under which the model's own statistical assumptions are considered met, so that the model can then be tested against subsequent market data. Crossing the threshold is not a prediction, not a rating of attractiveness, and not an invitation for anyone to transact. The validation engine runs exclusively on the operator's own paper account with fictitious money; it is an internal measurement tool, not a client-facing execution feature.

What “simulated execution” means

Every sequence in the track record runs in Alpaca's paper trading environment. Order fills are simulated by that environment against real market data; no real order reaches any market, and the $1,000 per sequence is simulated capital. No real funds are at risk at any point.

Real execution would differ from these simulated results. Among other things, live orders face trading fees, slippage, partial fills, queue position for limit orders, and the actual liquidity available at a quoted price. Paper fills do not reproduce these frictions faithfully, so simulated results do not account for real-world fill quality.

⚠️ Simulated execution. All figures on /performance are produced this way and are labeled accordingly.

What is included, what is excluded

Inclusion. Every sequence the engine launches appears on /performance, chronologically and whatever the outcome: in progress, completed and canceled alike. There is no filtering on results.

One documented exclusion. A small number of early sequences were affected by a pricing-precision limitation that has since been corrected. Those sequences are flagged and excluded from the public figures; nothing is deleted, every flagged row keeps its full order history, and the corresponding logs are available upon request.

No selected start date. The auto-launch rule entered production in June 2026 and has run continuously since. The reporting window starts when the protocol started, not at a date chosen for its results; the /performance page derives its “live since” date directly from the first auto-launched sequence on record.

Limitations

The track record is published for transparency, and that transparency includes its known biases:

  • It is a simulation. Paper fills, no live fees or slippage, one data venue (Alpaca). Live results would differ, and the direction of the difference is not guaranteed to be favorable.
  • The history is short. The protocol has only run since June 2026. Aggregate figures computed on a small number of closed sequences can move materially as new sequences close.
  • The catalogue evolves. The set of instruments eligible for auto-launch changes over time as coverage grows, so different periods of the record sample different universes.
  • The thresholds are ours. The 4-and-4 rule is a design choice made by Tradingale. The record describes the model at these settings only; different settings would produce a different record.

Data access

Aggregated figures and the full per-sequence table are published on /performance. Detailed transaction logs for any sequence, including the flagged defective rows, are available upon request: support@tradingale.com.

Martingale Score and Startingale are proprietary analytical tools describing statistical compatibility with the Tradingale sequence model. They are not trading signals and not investment or financial advice. Tradingale never places orders, holds funds, or gives advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Simulated results do not represent actual trading and are not a projection of future results.